Rare earth elements
Rare earths are not rare. What is rare is the willingness to separate them, and that single fact is the whole market.
At a glance
- Traded as
- Separated oxides and, increasingly, finished magnets
- The price that matters
- Neodymium-praseodymium oxide, US dollars per kilogram
- World mine production
- Roughly 390,000 tonnes of rare earth oxide in 2024
- Largest producer
- China, around two thirds of mining and far more of refining
What is actually being traded
Rare earths are seventeen elements that occur together in the same ores and behave almost identically in chemistry - which is exactly the problem. Separating them from each other requires hundreds of stages of solvent extraction, a process that is chemically demanding, capital intensive and environmentally unpleasant.
Only a few of the seventeen carry the market. Neodymium and praseodymium, usually quoted together as NdPr, go into the permanent magnets that turn electricity into motion. Dysprosium and terbium are added in small quantities to keep those magnets working at high temperatures. The rest exist in surplus, which is why an ore body's value depends entirely on which elements it actually contains.
There is no single rare earth price. Each oxide has its own, and a headline about rare earths going up is usually a headline about NdPr.
The rare earths that matter are the magnet ones. An ore body rich in the wrong elements is close to worthless.
What they are used for
Permanent magnets are the story. A neodymium-iron-boron magnet delivers far more force per kilogram than any alternative, which is why it sits in electric vehicle motors, wind turbine generators, hard drives, robotics and precision-guided weapons. Where a magnet must be small and strong, there is no practical substitute.
The remaining uses - catalysts for refining, polishing powders for glass and semiconductors, phosphors for lighting and displays - are real but far less price-sensitive. It is magnet demand that grows with electrification, and magnet demand that governments write policy about.
- Permanent magnets
- 43%
- Catalysts
- 20%
- Polishing and glass
- 15%
- Metallurgy and alloys
- 12%
- Phosphors, ceramics and other
- 10%
Source: USGS and industry estimates
Where they come from
Deposits exist on every continent, and the United States, Australia, Brazil, India and Vietnam all hold substantial resources. Production is nonetheless concentrated, because the economics of separation have historically only worked at scale in China.
Two other sources matter more than their size suggests. Myanmar supplies a significant share of the heavy rare earths - dysprosium and terbium - through mining that has been repeatedly interrupted by conflict, and the material crosses into China for processing. Recycling of magnets remains small but is the one source that is not geographically constrained.
| Name | Share |
|---|---|
| China | 69% |
| United States | 12% |
| Myanmar | 8% |
| Australia | 3% |
| Rest of world | 8% |
Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025
Behind the subscription
The rest of this entry is the part that changes a decision: what moves the price, which contract sets it, who ships it and where that can be cut off.
What moves the price
Why rare earth prices respond to policy rather than to geology, and the six forces - export controls, quotas, magnet demand, Myanmar, stockpiling and Western capacity - that set them.
Where they are traded
There is no exchange for rare earths. What that means for pricing, for hedging, and for any market that has to resolve against a number.
Who ships them, and where they can be cut off
The rare earth bottleneck in one line - and the three stages where a single country decides whether the rest of the world gets magnets.
How this shows up in prediction markets
Rare earth questions are policy questions. What they resolve against, and how to read an export-control headline against the actual licence data.
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Frequently asked questions
- Are rare earths actually rare?
- No. Several are more abundant in the earth's crust than copper. What is scarce is separation capacity - the chemically demanding, capital-intensive process of splitting elements that behave almost identically - and that capacity is concentrated in one country.
- Which rare earths matter for the price?
- Mainly neodymium and praseodymium, quoted together as NdPr, because they go into permanent magnets. Dysprosium and terbium matter in small quantities for high-temperature performance. The others are largely in surplus.
- Why do export controls move this market so much?
- Because the concentration is real. When one country holds most separation, metal-making and magnet capacity, a licensing requirement is a genuine constraint rather than a symbolic one - and buyers stockpile in anticipation, which moves the price further.
- Can the West build its own supply chain?
- Mines are the easy part and several already operate outside China. The hard part is separation, metal-making and magnet plants, which take years and have repeatedly run late. Capacity commissioned outside China is the number to watch, not tonnes mined.
Primary sources
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