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Prediction markets, explained
Free, no-jargon guides to reading prediction markets like a researcher. New here? Start at the top and work down.
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How prediction markets work
A prediction market turns a question about the future into a tradable price. This guide explains what you're actually looking at — no jargon, no hype.
Read guide - 5 min readCommon
How to read prediction market odds
Prediction market odds look cryptic until you know the one conversion. After that, every price on the board tells you a story.
Read guide - 6 min readRare
What is smart money in prediction markets?
"Smart money" is the term for traders who are consistently right. In prediction markets, their positions are public — if you know where to look.
Read guide - 9 min readRare
Polymarket vs Kalshi: what's the difference?
Polymarket and Kalshi are the two venues everyone compares, and they are built for different jobs. Here is what actually separates them — and what our own market data says about where each book is deep.
Read guide - 7 min readCommon
7 beginner mistakes in prediction markets
Most early losses come from a handful of avoidable mistakes. Learn to spot them and you're ahead of most of the crowd.
Read guide - 5 min readCommon
How to start with prediction markets
You don't need capital or a wallet to start learning. Here's a sane, low-risk path from zero to reading markets like a researcher.
Read guide - 7 min readLegendary
Is Polymarket legal in the US?
The short answer changed recently, and most guides online are still out of date. Here's where things actually stand — with the primary sources so you can check for yourself.
Read guide - 6 min readLegendary
Polymarket fees explained
Polymarket's fee model looks strange next to a sportsbook's, and that difference is the entire story. Here's what you pay and how it compares.
Read guide - 7 min readRare
Prediction markets vs sportsbooks
Both let you put money on a game. Almost everything underneath is different — including who you are trading against and whether you can get out.
Read guide - 9 min readRare
The best prediction market apps
Four platforms dominate the conversation and they are not competing for the same person. Here's what separates them.
Read guide - 7 min readLegendary
Prediction market taxes in the US
Two things are clear: the profits are taxable, and not receiving a form does not change that. Almost everything else is genuinely unsettled — here's an honest map.
Read guide - 7 min readRare
How to research a market you know nothing about
Most markets are about something you have never studied. That is fine - the routine below works without domain knowledge, because it starts with the rules rather than with an opinion.
Read guide - 6 min readRare
How to read resolution rules
More correct forecasts are lost to wording than to bad analysis. Here is what to look for, in the order it matters.
Read guide - 5 min readCommon
Why liquidity changes what a price means
Two markets can both say sixty percent and mean completely different things. The difference is how much money had to agree to put the number there.
Read guide - 6 min readCommon
How to place a trade: the order book, and the two ways to use it
Every price you see is somebody's standing offer. Understanding whose, and at what size, is the difference between the price you read and the price you pay.
Read guide - 6 min readRare
You do not have to hold to the end
A bet slip has one outcome and one moment. A market position has a price every second until it settles - and you can leave at any of them.
Read guide - 6 min readRare
How much to put on one market
A good estimate and a bad size is a losing combination. Sizing is the part of this that is arithmetic rather than judgement - which makes it the easiest part to get right and the most commonly skipped.
Read guide - 6 min readRare
Arbitrage: the free money that is mostly already gone
If the same event trades at two prices, someone can lock in a profit. The interesting question is not whether that happens - it is why the gaps that persist are usually not what they look like.
Read guide - 7 min readLegendary
Who is on the other side of your trade
Somebody sold you that contract. On most markets, most of the time, it was not a person with a view about the outcome - it was a program being paid a subsidy to stand there.
Read guide - 7 min readLegendary
Human research against automated forecasting
The interesting question is not whether a machine can forecast. It is which questions it is good at - because the answer is specific, published, and points at exactly where a person should be spending their time.
Read guide - 6 min readCommon
Kalshi fees explained
Kalshi charges an explicit, visible fee on a trade — and its shape catches people out, because it is largest exactly where most trading happens.
Read guide - 7 min readRare
Is Kalshi legal in the US?
Kalshi is the venue whose legal position is easiest to state and most often misstated — it is federally regulated, and that is not the same as being unrestricted.
Read guide - 6 min readCommon
Kalshi vs sportsbooks: what actually differs
The difference is not the subject matter — both let you take a position on a game. It is who is on the other side, and where the house's cut is hidden.
Read guide - 6 min readCommon
Polymarket vs PredictIt
PredictIt was where a generation learned to read a political market. Its constraints are also the reason its prices sometimes cannot be read at face value.
Read guide - 7 min readRare
Prediction markets vs polls
They are not competing answers to the same question. A poll measures stated intention now; a market prices an outcome later — and confusing the two is where most of the argument comes from.
Read guide - 6 min readCommon
Prediction markets vs Robinhood event contracts
A broker offering event contracts is a distribution channel, not a new kind of market. Knowing which exchange is underneath is the first question, not a detail.
Read guide
The research library
Reference entries on what the markets are about: what a resource is used for, where it comes from, what moves its price and who ships it. The first three sections of every entry are open.
Browse the libraryLearning paths
An ordered route through the guides, the library and the glossary, with a reason attached to every step. The route is public; walking it comes with Pro+.
See the pathsGlossary
Every term on one page, from implied probability to backwardation.
Open the glossary