Research library
What the markets are actually about
Prices move because of supply, schedules and rules — not headlines. These entries cover the subject underneath the market: what it is used for, what moves its price, where it trades and who ships it.
- Resources12 entries
Commodities & resources
Oil, gas, copper, lithium, uranium, grain. A prediction market about any of them is really a question about supply, demand and a handful of chokepoints — this is where those fundamentals live.
Open domain - Crypto8 entries
Crypto assets
Most crypto markets are one question in disguise: how far does the price still have to travel, and how often has it travelled that far in the time left?
Open domain - Macro8 entries
Macro & monetary policy
Macro markets have a superpower and a trap: the answer arrives on a scheduled date from a named agency — and the wording decides whether a revision counts.
Open domain - Politics8 entries
Politics & elections
Election markets are the oldest use of prediction markets and still the one where the resolution wording does the most damage.
Open domain - Sports8 entries
Sports
A championship market is a season-long probability, not a bet slip. Knowing how the format decides the tail is most of the work.
Open domain - Geopolitics8 entries
Geopolitics & conflict
These are the markets where the world and the wording disagree most often. A ceasefire that everyone reports is not automatically a ceasefire that resolves the market.
Open domain - Security8 entries
Cyber security & incidents
A breach is a story within hours and a document within weeks, and only the document settles anything. This domain is about the distance between the two - and about what the distance is worth.
Open domain - Health6 entries
Health & pharma
A health market is almost never a medical question. It is a question about an agency: which one publishes the number, on what schedule, under which definition, and what the decision does to a price.
Open domain