Research library
Prices move because of supply, schedules and rules — not headlines. These entries cover the subject underneath the market: what it is used for, what moves its price, where it trades and who ships it.
Oil, gas, copper, lithium, uranium, grain. A prediction market about any of them is really a question about supply, demand and a handful of chokepoints — this is where those fundamentals live.
Open domainMost crypto markets are one question in disguise: how far does the price still have to travel, and how often has it travelled that far in the time left?
Open domainMacro markets have a superpower and a trap: the answer arrives on a scheduled date from a named agency — and the wording decides whether a revision counts.
Open domainElection markets are the oldest use of prediction markets and still the one where the resolution wording does the most damage.
Open domainA championship market is a season-long probability, not a bet slip. Knowing how the format decides the tail is most of the work.
Open domainThese are the markets where the world and the wording disagree most often. A ceasefire that everyone reports is not automatically a ceasefire that resolves the market.
Open domain