Daily recap

Today's biggest moves

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19?95¢▲ +44.5%2

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 19?86¢▲ +44.0%3

Ethereum Up or Down on October 19?92¢▲ +41.5%4

Almaty Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs James Duckworth28¢▼ −30.5%5Kecmanovic vs Duckworth — James Duckworth69¢▲ +26.0%6Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Total Runs — Over 6.5 runs scored71¢▲ +23.0%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?Market 50%AI 59%-9 pp gap

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Market 19%AI 14%+5 pp gap

Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?Market 31%AI 36%-5 pp gap Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Market 11%AI 16%-5 pp gap

Biggest coin moves

The largest 24-hour price swings among the coins in our crypto hub.

Arbitrum ARB$0.1963▲ +7.6%The Sandbox SAND$0.0605▼ −6.8%Pepe PEPE$0.0000041▲ +5.6%JasmyCoin JASMY$0.00473984▲ +5.5%Starknet STRK$0.0595▼ −5.1%Pump.fun PUMP$0.0044679▲ +4.7%

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?6¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?8¢

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?11¢US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?82¢

Monthly archive

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