Politics
Election markets are the oldest use of prediction markets and still the one where the resolution wording does the most damage.
A market on who wins is rarely settled by the vote count alone — it is settled by a named authority certifying a result, sometimes weeks later, sometimes after a challenge. Markets on nominations, appointments and confirmations each hang on a different official act.
That is why the same event can trade at two prices on two venues: the questions are not identical even when the headlines are.
The largest prediction markets in the world settle on this question, and it is not decided by the national vote total. It is decided by 538 electors, a handful of states, and a certification process that runs for weeks after election night.
Open entryElection night produces a number that nobody in the process treats as final. The Electoral College turns state results into 538 votes over eleven weeks, and every step of that has a date and a named authority.
Open entryTwo chambers, two completely different games. The House turns over entirely every two years; the Senate replaces a third of itself, and which third is decided decades in advance.
Open entryA confirmation market looks like a personality question and is really a procedural one. The nominee rarely loses a vote - what happens is that the vote never gets scheduled.
Open entryA shutdown is not a political mood, it is a legal condition: money stops being appropriated, and a 19th-century statute makes spending it a crime. Everything else follows from that.
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