Politics prediction market odds
Election nominees, leadership races and confirmation fights are the classic prediction market: a crowded field, one winner, and a price on each name that moves the moment news breaks. The percentages below are what traders are actually paying — a candidate at 40 % means real money says they win roughly two times in five.
Fed Decision in October?No change89 %5 outcomes$47.5MPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?Gadi Eizenkot48 %19 outcomes$48.7MNext French Presidential ElectionMarine Le Pen47 %42 outcomes$153.7MRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028J.D. Vance44 %43 outcomes$713.5MDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028Gavin Newsom16 %53 outcomes$1,295.1MBalance of Power: 2026 MidtermsDemocrats Sweep63 %5 outcomes$25.1MPresidential Election Winner 2028JD Vance20 %54 outcomes$717.3MWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?No Hormuz Agreement89 %3 outcomes$2MWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?No Hormuz Agreement82 %3 outcomes$1.2MIsraeli Legislative Election WinnerYashar68 %6 outcomes$1.1MNext Prime Minister of Spain?Alberto Núñez Feijóo82 %16 outcomes$2MNext Prime Minister of Romania?Luca Niculescu96 %38 outcomes$5.5MIran leader end of 2026?Mojtaba Khamenei87 %30 outcomes$36.7MWho wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?Oil ≥ $85; D Senate59 %4 outcomes$680.2KFed Decision in December?25 bps increase77 %5 outcomes$4MBank of Canada Decision in October?No Change63 %5 outcomes$259.3KVenezuela leader end of 2026?Nicolás Maduro74 %16 outcomes$98.5MCalifornia Governor Election WinnerXavier Becerra96 %8 outcomes$19.4MNebraska Senate Election Winner Pete Ricketts (R)71 %3 outcomes$723.2KIsrael Election: Likud # of seats?20-2443 %5 outcomes$630.4K
By date & threshold
Events where the outcomes build on each other rather than compete — cumulative odds by deadline or by threshold.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?October 2296 %9 outcomes$6.3MIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through...?October 2198 %5 outcomes$5.1MUS announces end of Iranian blockade by...?March 3159 %4 outcomes$9.3MPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?December 3129 %3 outcomes$475.4KNext Press Secretary announced by...?December 3182 %3 outcomes$423.2KFrance declares state of siege (martial law) by...?December 314 %3 outcomes$99.4KWho will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Steve Witkoff35 %23 outcomes$1.1MIran leadership change by...?June 30, 202726 %4 outcomes$6.6MRussia x Ukraine peace talks by...?December 3133 %3 outcomes$1MIndiana enacts data center moratorium by...?December 31, 202827 %4 outcomes$6.1MParis curfew announced by...?October 319 %4 outcomes$27.5KBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?December 3118 %3 outcomes$3.3MFrance declares state of emergency by...?December 3116 %3 outcomes$23.4KRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?December 31, 202769 %15 outcomes$5.7MWho will Trump pardon before 2027?Daniel Penny21 %24 outcomes$508.8KUS-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?October 2199 %3 outcomes$356.6KFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?December 31, 202742 %6 outcomes$2.5MRussia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?December 3172 %3 outcomes$211.3KCurfew in a major French city by...?December 3127 %4 outcomes$14KTexas enacts data center moratorium by...?December 31, 202828 %4 outcomes$732.3K
Frequently asked questions
- Are political prediction markets legal in the US?
- Trading political outcomes on a CFTC-registered exchange is legal for US residents, and both Polymarket US and Kalshi operate under that framework. Availability still varies by state, and the venue is the authority on where it can take you.
- Are prediction markets better than political polls?
- They answer a different question. A poll measures stated preference at one moment; a market prices the probability of an outcome, with money behind each estimate and continuous updating as news lands. Markets absorb polls as one input among many.
Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.