Macro
Macro markets have a superpower and a trap: the answer arrives on a scheduled date from a named agency — and the wording decides whether a revision counts.
Every macro market points at a specific series published by a specific institution: a CPI print from the BLS, a policy decision from the FOMC, a payrolls number with a revision history. The release calendar is public, which makes these the most researchable markets on the board.
The trap is the fine print. A number that gets revised a month later, a definition that changed in a rebasing, a decision announced in a statement rather than a vote — each of these has decided markets that traders thought they had already won.
No number reprices more markets in a single second than the US CPI. Almost all of that reaction comes from two decimal places nobody sees until 8:30am.
Open entryThe most traded question in macro is not what the Fed will do eventually, but what it will do at the next meeting - and that one is decided by twelve people on a published schedule.
Open entryOne report, two surveys, and they routinely tell different stories. Knowing which one produced which headline is most of what it takes to read a jobs day.
Open entryA rate built from a survey of sixty thousand households, published to one decimal place - and the sampling error is wider than the step markets trade on.
Open entryGDP is the number everyone quotes and almost nobody reads correctly - starting with the fact that the US publishes it three times per quarter and annualises it while most of the world does not.
Open entry