Macro
Macro and monetary policy
Macro markets have a superpower and a trap: the answer arrives on a scheduled date from a named agency — and the wording decides whether a revision counts.
Every macro market points at a specific series published by a specific institution: a CPI print from the BLS, a policy decision from the FOMC, a payrolls number with a revision history. The release calendar is public, which makes these the most researchable markets on the board.
The trap is the fine print. A number that gets revised a month later, a definition that changed in a rebasing, a decision announced in a statement rather than a vote — each of these has decided markets that traders thought they had already won.
US inflation (CPI)
No number reprices more markets in a single second than the US CPI. Almost all of that reaction comes from two decimal places nobody sees until 8:30am.
Open entryFed policy rate
The most traded question in macro is not what the Fed will do eventually, but what it will do at the next meeting - and that one is decided by twelve people on a published schedule.
Open entryUS jobs report
One report, two surveys, and they routinely tell different stories. Knowing which one produced which headline is most of what it takes to read a jobs day.
Open entryUS unemployment rate
A rate built from a survey of sixty thousand households, published to one decimal place - and the sampling error is wider than the step markets trade on.
Open entryUS GDP
GDP is the number everyone quotes and almost nobody reads correctly - starting with the fact that the US publishes it three times per quarter and annualises it while most of the world does not.
Open entryTreasury yields
A ten-year yield is not one opinion. It is the average short rate the market expects over ten years, plus what it demands for the risk of being wrong - and those two halves answer to different masters.
Open entryTariffs
In February a court struck down the legal basis for the central pillar of US trade policy. The average tariff rate barely moved. Understanding why is most of what these markets require.
Open entryRecessions
Almost everything widely believed about how a recession is declared is wrong: not the two-quarter rule, not the timing, and not who decides. All three matter for a contract.
Open entry
How these markets resolve
- The first print of an official series at its scheduled release, usually excluding later revisions — check which.
- A central bank decision as published in the statement, not as reported by a wire service.
- A threshold on a published index, where the index version and base year matter.