Why do these add up to more than 100%?

Because these outcomes are independent rather than competing. Several of them can happen at once, so their probabilities do not have to sum to 100%.

How often do these odds update?

Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? odds

6 independent outcomes · $276.4K traded · updated 1 wk. ago

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

These outcomes are independent — they do not compete, and more than one can happen. That is why the percentages here add up to more than 100%.

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Frequently asked questions

Why do these add up to more than 100%?: Because these outcomes are independent rather than competing. Several of them can happen at once, so their probabilities do not have to sum to 100%.
How often do these odds update?: Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.

How to read the odds

Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? odds

Frequently asked questions

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