Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 odds
Live implied probabilities across 43 outcomes · $713.5M traded · updated 7 hr. ago
Resolves Nov 8, 2028
J.D. Vance leads at 46 % · biggest 24h move: Ron DeSantis +1.3 pp
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
- 1J.D. Vance46 %▼ −1.0%$15.9M
- 2Marco Rubio14 %▲ +0.7%$10.8M
- 3Ron DeSantis4 %▲ +1.3%$15.9M
- 4Tucker Carlson3 %▲ +0.1%$13.9M
- 5Ted Cruz2 %—$19.8M
- 6Donald Trump2 %—$9.7M
- 7Donald Trump Jr.2 %—$9.8M
- 8Ivanka Trump1 %—$8.8M
- 9Thomas Massie1 %▲ +0.1%$6.2M
- 10Brian Kemp1 %—$18M
- 11Tulsi Gabbard0 %—$14.1M
- 12Pete Hegseth0 %▲ +0.1%$9.4M
Show all 43 outcomesShow fewer
- 13Glenn Youngkin0 %—$8.8M
- 14Josh Hawley0 %—$20.4M
- 15Rand Paul0 %▲ +0.1%$19.8M
- 16Marjorie Taylor Greene0 %—$6.8M
- 17Tom Cotton0 %—$1.7M
- 18Robert F. Kennedy Jr.0 %—$16.9M
- 19Vivek Ramaswamy0 %—$16.1M
- 20Katie Britt0 %—$29M
- 21Candace Owens0 %—$919.2K
- 22Nikki Haley0 %—$10.5M
- 23Sarah Huckabee Sanders0 %▲ +0.1%$36.2M
- 24Greg Abbott0 %—$21.4M
- 25Byron Donalds0 %▲ +0.1%$44.6M
- 26Elise Stefanik0 %—$28.2M
- 27Elon Musk0 %—$31.5M
- 28Kristi Noem0 %—$37.7M
- 29Mike Pence0 %—$43.7M
- 30Steve Bannon0 %—$23M
- 31Kim Kardashian0 %—$28.6M
- 32Eric Trump0 %—$10.6M
- 33Joe Kent0 %—$8.9M
- 34John N. Kennedy0 %—$974.7K
- 35John McEntee0 %—$284.1K
- 36Doug Burgum0 %—$1.5M
- 37Matt Gaetz0 %—$20.6M
- 38John Thune0 %—$38.3M
- 39Tom Brady0 %—$33M
- 40Erika Kirk0 %—$19M
- 41Tim Scott0 %—$551.5K
- 42Mike Johnson0 %—$881.3K
- 43Rick Scott0 %—$813.9K
Market Guy's AI runs research on these markets daily — sign up to see where it disagrees.
See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Republican Presidential Nominee 2028?
- J.D. Vance is the current favourite at 46 %, ahead of 42 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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