Iran leader end of 2026? odds
Live implied probabilities across 30 outcomes · $36.7M traded · updated 8 hr. ago
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei leads at 87 % · biggest 24h move: Alireza Arafi −0.9 pp
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
- 1Mojtaba Khamenei87 %▲ +0.2%$6.7M
- 2No Head of State4 %—$1.2M
- 3Reza Pahlavi3 %▼ −0.1%$705.5K
- 4Alireza Arafi2 %▼ −0.9%$2.3M
- 5Hassan Rouhani1 %—$952.9K
- 6Abbas Araghchi0 %▼ −0.1%$838.4K
- 7Maryam Rajavi0 %▼ −0.1%$906.6K
- 8Masoud Pezeshkian0 %▲ +0.1%$1M
- 9Ahmad Vahidi0 %—$785.8K
- 10Seyed Hossein Mousavian0 %▲ +0.1%$408K
- 11Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf0 %▼ −0.1%$927.6K
- 12Hassan Khomeini0 %—$1.5M
Show all 30 outcomesShow fewer
- 13Mahmoud Ahmadinejad0 %—$1.1M
- 14Muhammad Mirbaqiri0 %—$474.4K
- 15Sadegh Larijani0 %—$579.7K
- 16Hassan Shariatmadari0 %▲ +0.1%$3.2M
- 17Massoud Rajavi0 %▲ +0.1%$436.6K
- 18Reza Pirzadeh0 %▲ +0.1%$187.8K
- 19Navid Shomali0 %▲ +0.1%$259.8K
- 20Mustafa Hijri0 %▲ +0.1%$239.4K
- 21Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel0 %▲ +0.1%$442.6K
- 22Mostafa Pourmohammadi0 %▲ +0.1%$3.4M
- 23Sadegh Mahsouli0 %▲ +0.1%$275.8K
- 24Saeed Jalili0 %▲ +0.1%$425K
- 25Mohammad Khatami0 %▲ +0.1%$5.2M
- 26Mohsen Araki0 %▲ +0.1%$324.8K
- 27Nasir Hosseini0 %▲ +0.1%$300.7K
- 28Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani0 %▲ +0.1%$333.1K
- 29Ali Asghar Hejazi0 %—$378.3K
- 30Ali Motahari0 %▼ −0.1%$860.2K
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See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Iran leader end of 2026??
- Mojtaba Khamenei is the current favourite at 87 %, ahead of 29 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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