Next French Presidential Election odds
Live implied probabilities across 42 outcomes · $153.7M traded · updated 1 hr. ago
Resolves Apr 30, 2027
Marine Le Pen leads at 47 % · biggest 24h move: Raphaël Glucksmann +1.1 pp
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
- 1Marine Le Pen47 %▼ −0.9%$4.1M
- 2Édouard Philippe19 %▼ −1.0%$2.4M
- 3David Lisnard12 %—$5M
- 4Jean-Luc Mélenchon11 %—$2.4M
- 5Raphaël Glucksmann5 %▲ +1.1%$2.8M
- 6François Hollande2 %▲ +0.1%$2.6M
- 7Gabriel Attal1 %▼ −0.2%$3.1M
- 8Sarah Knafo1 %—$2.7M
- 9Bruno Retailleau1 %—$3M
- 10Éric Zemmour1 %▲ +0.2%$3.1M
- 11Christine Lagarde1 %—$1.1M
- 12Jordan Bardella1 %▲ +0.1%$2.8M
Show all 42 outcomesShow fewer
- 13Dominique de Villepin1 %▲ +0.2%$2.7M
- 14Sébastien Lecornu0 %—$2.3M
- 15Xavier Bertrand0 %▼ −0.1%$6.2M
- 16François Ruffin0 %▼ −0.1%$4.8M
- 17Marine Tondelier0 %▼ −0.1%$4.6M
- 18Ségolène Royal0 %▲ +0.1%$7M
- 19François Asselineau0 %▼ −0.1%$6.3M
- 20Jean Castex0 %▼ −0.1%$2M
- 21Karim Bouamrane0 %▼ −0.1%$1.3M
- 22Laurent Wauquiez0 %—$3.7M
- 23Fabien Roussel0 %—$4.3M
- 24Olivier Faure0 %—$6.4M
- 25Clémentine Autain0 %—$5M
- 26Nicolas Dupont-Aignan0 %—$4.9M
- 27Michel Barnier0 %—$5.3M
- 28Valérie Pécresse0 %—$4.1M
- 29François Bayrou0 %—$5.9M
- 30Élisabeth Borne0 %—$5.5M
- 31Yaël Braun-Pivet0 %—$5.8M
- 32Gérald Darmanin0 %—$2.1M
- 33Carole Delga0 %—$4.7M
- 34Bernard Cazeneuve0 %—$2.4M
- 35Manuel Bompard0 %—$5.2M
- 36Mathilde Panot0 %—$6.4M
- 37Juan Branco0 %—$2.4M
- 38Clémence Guetté0 %—$4.2M
- 39Lucie Castets0 %—$423.8K
- 40Yannick Jadot0 %—$750.5K
- 41François Baroin0 %—$1.4M
- 42Marion Maréchal0 %—$501.7K
Market Guy's AI runs research on these markets daily — sign up to see where it disagrees.
See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Next French Presidential Election?
- Marine Le Pen is the current favourite at 47 %, ahead of 41 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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