Presidential Election Winner 2028 odds
Live implied probabilities across 54 outcomes · $717.2M traded · updated 4 hr. ago
Resolves Nov 8, 2028
JD Vance leads at 20 % · biggest 24h move: Jon Ossoff +1.1 pp
#OutcomeChance24hVolume7d
- 1JD Vance20 %▼ −0.3%$17.2M
- 2Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13 %—$13.9M
- 3Jon Ossoff10 %▲ +1.1%$6M
- 4Gavin Newsom9 %—$18.6M
- 5Marco Rubio8 %▼ −0.2%$13M
- 6Kamala Harris4 %▼ −0.1%$9.3M
- 7Josh Shapiro3 %—$7.6M
- 8Pete Buttigieg3 %—$8.5M
- 9Ron DeSantis2 %▲ +0.1%$12.7M
- 10Andy Beshear2 %—$19.4M
- 11Tucker Carlson2 %—$14.4M
- 12Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2 %—$8.5M
Show all 54 outcomesShow fewer
- 13James Talarico2 %▼ −0.1%$8M
- 14Donald Trump1 %—$10.7M
- 15Mark Kelly1 %—$789.5K
- 16Raphael Warnock1 %—$1.2M
- 17Wes Moore1 %—$12.7M
- 18Ro Khanna1 %—$10.9M
- 19Thomas Massie1 %▼ −0.1%$8.6M
- 20JB Pritzker1 %▲ +0.1%$13.2M
- 21Ivanka Trump1 %—$8.5M
- 22Rahm Emanuel1 %—$184.2K
- 23Donald Trump Jr.1 %—$14.1M
- 24Ted Cruz1 %—$589.1K
- 25Gretchen Whitmer0 %—$15.6M
- 26Jamie Dimon0 %▼ −0.1%$11.1M
- 27Glenn Youngkin0 %—$28.6M
- 28Tulsi Gabbard0 %—$35.5M
- 29Greg Abbott0 %—$35.4M
- 30Elon Musk0 %—$27.3M
- 31Michelle Obama0 %—$19.4M
- 32Tom Cotton0 %—$1.6M
- 33Stephen Smith0 %—$33.7M
- 34Nikki Haley0 %—$30.3M
- 35Tim Walz0 %—$44.9M
- 36Vivek Ramaswamy0 %—$38M
- 37LeBron James0 %—$54.9M
- 38Kim Kardashian0 %—$40.3M
- 39Zohran Mamdani0 %—$22.4M
- 40Eric Trump0 %—$18.9M
- 41Pete Hegseth0 %—$10.4M
- 42Jalen Brunson0 %—$2.7M
- 43Abigail Spanberger0 %—$923.4K
- 44Hakeem Jeffries0 %—$278.7K
- 45Elissa Slotkin0 %—$728.6K
- 46Adam Schiff0 %—$945.1K
- 47Josh Stein0 %—$1M
- 48Alex Padilla0 %—$850.6K
- 49Candace Owens0 %—$534.6K
- 50Tim Scott0 %—$393.1K
- 51Mike Johnson0 %—$391K
- 52Doug Burgum0 %—$413.8K
- 53John N. Kennedy0 %—$394.9K
- 54Rick Scott0 %—$511.2K
Market Guy's AI runs research on these markets daily — sign up to see where it disagrees.
See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Presidential Election Winner 2028?
- JD Vance is the current favourite at 20 %, ahead of 53 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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