The steps between a live contract and a probability estimate, and the limits of each one.
Last updated Sep 1, 2026
An analysis is a structured basis for your own decision. It is not a buy or sell recommendation, and it is not investment advice. Every report states a probability we derived ourselves and the price the market was showing at the time, so you can see where the two disagree and judge the reasoning behind the gap.
The report is generated. A person does not review each one before it appears. That is the single most important thing to know when reading it, and it is why every factual claim carries its sources and why the sections below describe exactly what the model is asked to do.
The model is instructed to work through the same sequence on every market, rather than summarising whatever a search returns first:
The estimate is derived from the evidence first and only then compared against the market price. The instruction is explicit that the price must not be used as an anchor — but also that a large deviation from a liquid market is an extraordinary claim, and the report has to name the concrete evidence behind it in the bull or bear case.
Time remaining is part of the calculation: the closer a deadline comes without the required event having happened or been scheduled, the further the estimate has to move toward the base rate for last-minute resolution. Round numbers are discouraged — 62 and 87 are acceptable answers, a reflexive 50 or 80 is not.
A large share of surprises in prediction markets come from the rule set, not from the world. Every report therefore carries a resolution section that states in one sentence what must happen for YES, which authority decides and when, the exact deadline including timezone where the rules name one, and an ambiguity rating.
Two fields exist purely to catch the common traps: hidden clauses — vague or counterintuitive wording, each with a short note on why it could flip the expected outcome — and an explicit comparison between the contract title and the actual rules. When they agree, the field says so rather than staying silent.
Key facts carry indices into the search results the model actually used, and those citations are rendered visibly under every analysis. The instruction is to use an empty list rather than guess when it is unclear which result supports a claim.
This is the part to read critically. Citation indices are produced by the same model that writes the text; a wrong index is a plausible failure, and the safeguard against it is that the sources are shown to you rather than summarised away. Treat a claim whose source does not support it as what it is — an error worth reporting.
Where a report or panel refers to smart money, it means a cohort selected for demonstrated edge, not for size. A wallet has to bring a minimum history of resolved positions before it is scored at all — below that, a handful of lucky calls would produce a perfect record.
The qualifying threshold is measured rather than set: it is derived from the distribution of scored wallets and re-derived as that population changes, so the cohort stays the top slice instead of drifting with a number someone picked once. A verdict also accounts for how many distinct wallets stand behind a position and how recent they are, and it says so instead of inventing a signal when the sample is too thin or one position dominates it.
For markets with a tradeable underlying, reports are enriched with context computed from public data rather than described in prose: spot price, the move required to reach the threshold, a historical base rate, realised volatility, funding and open interest, and — where the instrument exists — an options-implied probability. Sports markets get schedule and standing context instead.
Macro is the acknowledged gap. Under the constraint of using only sources that need no API key, no provider covers questions like a September rate decision, and the reports say nothing rather than something unsourced.
It cannot see private information, and it cannot outrun a market that has already priced in news. It depends on search results, so a market whose decisive facts are not published anywhere is a market where the estimate is weak — the confidence rating is where that shows up.
It is also not a track record. How well the estimates have performed is a separate, measured question, and it is answered on the forecast track record page — including where the sample is still too small to answer.