Terms of Service

What you are agreeing to

These terms cover your use of Market Guy — the website, the research reports it generates, and any paid plan you take out. By creating an account or using the public parts of the site, you accept them. If you do not, please do not use the service.

We may change these terms as the product changes. Material changes will be announced on this page with a new date at the top, and continuing to use the service after that counts as acceptance. We will not apply a change retroactively to a billing period you have already paid for.

This is not financial advice

Everything the service produces — probability estimates, research reports, smart-money verdicts, base rates, price levels — is information, not advice. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any contract, security or asset, and it is not tailored to your circumstances.

Prediction markets can lose you money, and the fact that a model states a probability does not make that probability correct. Read the model card before you rely on anything here: it names the failure modes we know about.

Whether you may legally trade on a prediction market depends on where you live, and that is your responsibility to establish. We do not operate a market, hold funds, or execute trades, and we are not affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi.

Accounts

You need an account for the paid features. Keep your credentials to yourself — you are responsible for what happens under your account. Tell us promptly if you think it has been compromised.

One account is for one person. Sharing credentials, or reselling access to the research the account generates, is not permitted.

You must be old enough to enter a contract where you live. We may suspend or close an account that breaks these terms, and we will tell you why unless we are legally prevented from doing so.

Plans, billing and cancellation

Paid plans are billed through Stripe on a recurring basis until cancelled. The price, the billing period and what each plan includes are shown on the pricing page before you pay, and the plan you are on is shown in your account.

A trial period, where offered, converts into a paid subscription unless you cancel before it ends. You can cancel at any time from the billing portal in your account; cancellation takes effect at the end of the period you have already paid for, and you keep access until then.

Research credits are a monthly allowance, not a purchased balance. They reset at the start of each billing period and unused credits do not carry over. A failed research request is refunded to your allowance automatically.

Statutory rights of withdrawal, where they apply to you, are unaffected by anything in this section.

Acceptable use

Use the service for your own research. Do not scrape it, do not resell or redistribute its output as a data product, do not use it to build a competing service, and do not try to circumvent the plan limits, the rate limits or the paywall.

Do not attack the service or the infrastructure it runs on, and do not use it to break the law. Automated access outside of what the interface offers is not permitted without written agreement.

Content and intellectual property

The site, its editorial content and the software behind it belong to the operator. You may quote and cite it — attribution and a link are appreciated — but you may not republish substantial parts of it as your own.

Market data belongs to the venues and providers it comes from and is shown here under their terms. Research reports are generated for you; you may use them for your own purposes, including commercially, but the generated text carries no warranty of accuracy and remains subject to the citation rules of the sources it quotes.

Availability and warranties

The service is provided as it is. We work to keep it available and accurate, but we do not warrant that it will be uninterrupted, error-free, or that any figure it shows is correct at the moment you read it. Data arrives from third parties and can be late, wrong or missing, and the product is built to degrade rather than to invent — a missing number means a missing number.

We may change, suspend or discontinue parts of the service. If we discontinue a paid feature during a period you have paid for, we will refund the unused part of it.

Liability

To the extent the law allows, we are not liable for trading losses, lost profits, or decisions you take on the basis of anything the service produces. Nothing in these terms limits liability for death or personal injury caused by negligence, for fraud, or for anything else that cannot lawfully be limited.

Where our liability cannot be excluded, it is limited to the amount you paid us in the twelve months before the event that caused it.

Contact

Questions about these terms go to support@market-guy.com.