Event hubs
Recurring events
One page per recurring decision — the next date, the live prices, and how accurate these markets have actually been on this kind of event. Market pages die when they resolve; these do not.
- Fed interest rate decisionEight scheduled decisions a year, each one a date on which a committee votes and a number changes — or does not.Eight scheduled FOMC meetings a year, roughly every six weeks.
- CPI inflation reportA monthly number from a statistical agency, published on a known date — and one of the few events where the market is pricing a measurement rather than a decision.Monthly, on a schedule published a year in advance by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)The most revised number in macro, traded on its first print — which makes the resolution wording unusually important.Monthly, usually the first Friday, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- US government shutdownA deadline, a vote that does or does not happen, and a definition of "shutdown" that varies more between contracts than most readers expect.Whenever appropriations lapse — recurring around funding deadlines rather than on a fixed calendar.
- Super BowlThe one sports event where a prediction market price and a sportsbook line are read side by side by the same audience — and where the difference between them is easiest to see.Annually, in February.
- US electionsThe event family prediction markets were built for — and the one where the gap between a market price and a poll is most worth reading.Federal elections every two years, with primaries, special elections and nominations in between.