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Updated 13 min. ago

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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3 %

chance

▲ +0.1%1h▲ +0.5%24h▲ +1.2%1W
Yes 3¢No 97¢

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

19 outcomes
See all 19 outcomes

Total volume

$4.2M

24h vol.

$77.6K

1w vol.

$682.4K

1m vol.

$1.8M

Liquidity

$137.6K

Bid / Ask

3¢ / 4¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

4¢

Start date

Sep 22, 2025

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 291 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.4%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
3¢$374
3¢$42
3¢$5,336
3¢$9,508
3¢$37,328
3¢$2,111
3¢$2,738
2¢$27,152
2¢$9,755
2¢$9,209
Asks (sell)Size
4¢$11,441
4¢$3,811
4¢$4,011
4¢$5,400
4¢$257
4¢$550
4¢$550
5¢$550
5¢$783
5¢$1,662

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 84%Sells 16%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
16 min. agoSell96¢6
16 min. agoBuy96¢6
17 min. agoBuy4¢1,097
17 min. agoBuy96¢1,097
18 min. agoBuy4¢5,289
18 min. agoBuy96¢256
18 min. agoSell4¢626
18 min. agoBuy97¢4,407
25 min. agoBuy3¢2,184
25 min. agoBuy97¢372
25 min. agoSell3¢76
25 min. agoSell3¢76
25 min. agoSell3¢400
25 min. agoSell3¢400
25 min. agoSell3¢400
25 min. agoSell3¢400
25 min. agoSell3¢60
26 min. agoBuy3¢26
26 min. agoSell3¢26
38 min. agoBuy97¢102
38 min. agoSell97¢102
39 min. agoBuy3¢31
39 min. agoSell3¢31
42 min. agoBuy3¢283
42 min. agoSell3¢283
1 hr. agoBuy3¢292
1 hr. agoBuy97¢186
1 hr. agoBuy97¢15
1 hr. agoSell3¢91
2 hr. agoSell97¢6
2 hr. agoSell3¢6
2 hr. agoBuy3¢50
2 hr. agoSell3¢12
2 hr. agoBuy97¢38
2 hr. agoBuy3¢15
2 hr. agoSell3¢15
2 hr. agoBuy3¢50
2 hr. agoBuy97¢50
2 hr. agoBuy3¢20
2 hr. agoBuy97¢20
2 hr. agoBuy3¢312
2 hr. agoBuy97¢304
2 hr. agoSell3¢8
2 hr. agoBuy97¢210
2 hr. agoSell97¢5
2 hr. agoBuy3¢8
2 hr. agoSell97¢197
2 hr. agoBuy97¢20
2 hr. agoSell97¢20
2 hr. agoBuy3¢15

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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Smart money is a Pro+ feature

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◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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