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Updated 2 min. ago

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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3 %

chance

▼ −0.1%1h▲ +0.4%24h▲ +1.1%1W
Yes 3¢No 97¢

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

19 outcomes
See all 19 outcomes

Total volume

$4.2M

24h vol.

$68.6K

1w vol.

$674.4K

1m vol.

$1.8M

Liquidity

$141.6K

Bid / Ask

3¢ / 4¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

3¢

Start date

Sep 22, 2025

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 291 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.4%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
3¢$443
3¢$5,341
3¢$9,508
3¢$37,361
3¢$2,111
3¢$2,738
2¢$27,044
2¢$9,755
2¢$9,209
2¢$10,700
Asks (sell)Size
4¢$4,778
4¢$13,426
4¢$3,811
4¢$4,011
4¢$5,400
4¢$257
4¢$550
4¢$550
5¢$550
5¢$775

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 71%Sells 29%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
10 min. agoBuy3¢292
10 min. agoBuy97¢186
10 min. agoBuy97¢15
10 min. agoSell3¢91
22 min. agoSell97¢6
22 min. agoSell3¢6
22 min. agoBuy3¢50
22 min. agoSell3¢12
22 min. agoBuy97¢38
22 min. agoBuy3¢15
22 min. agoSell3¢15
23 min. agoBuy3¢50
23 min. agoBuy97¢50
25 min. agoBuy3¢20
25 min. agoBuy97¢20
25 min. agoBuy3¢312
25 min. agoBuy97¢304
25 min. agoSell3¢8
26 min. agoBuy97¢210
26 min. agoSell97¢5
26 min. agoBuy3¢8
26 min. agoSell97¢197
26 min. agoBuy97¢20
26 min. agoSell97¢20
26 min. agoBuy3¢15
26 min. agoBuy97¢15
26 min. agoBuy97¢25
26 min. agoBuy3¢25
26 min. agoBuy97¢161
26 min. agoBuy3¢139
26 min. agoBuy3¢22
26 min. agoBuy97¢8
26 min. agoSell97¢8
29 min. agoBuy3¢303
29 min. agoSell3¢303
34 min. agoBuy3¢926
34 min. agoBuy97¢35
34 min. agoSell4¢86
34 min. agoSell3¢400
34 min. agoBuy97¢5
34 min. agoSell3¢400
51 min. agoBuy97¢101
51 min. agoSell97¢101
57 min. agoBuy4¢914
57 min. agoSell4¢914
1 hr. agoBuy4¢28
1 hr. agoSell4¢28
2 hr. agoBuy4¢2,827
2 hr. agoSell4¢1,068
2 hr. agoBuy97¢1,758

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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Smart money is a Pro+ feature

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◆ Kalshi comparison

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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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