Erste Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Alex de Minaur

Market brief

• Down 49.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 51% on Oct 27, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 43 buys, 7 sells; the largest was $10.5K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 2% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (324 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 6 days (Nov 4, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 324 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.9% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
• Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.

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