Crypto base rate calculator
Turn a price target into a frequency: how often this coin has covered that distance before.
Result
- Bitcoin moved +20.0 % within 30 daysCounting any touch during the window
- 17.0 %
- Windows where it happened
- 199
- Windows measured
- 1,170
- Window length
- 30 days
- HistoryCoinbase, up to three years
- 1,200 daily closes
A historical frequency, not a probability. It assumes the next window is drawn from the same distribution as the last three years — the assumption that breaks when the regime changes.
What a base rate is, and what it is not
This counts every window of the length you chose in the last three years of daily closes, and reports the share of them in which the coin covered the distance you asked about. If 41 of 1,005 thirty-day windows saw Bitcoin rise 25 % at some point, the base rate is 4 %.
It is a frequency, not a probability. It describes what the price has done, and it assumes the next thirty days are drawn from the same distribution as the last three years — which is exactly the assumption that breaks when the regime changes. Read it as the outside view to check a story against, not as a forecast.
Touch and terminal are different questions
“Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December?” and “Will Bitcoin be above $150,000 on 31 December?” are not the same question, and over months they diverge sharply. Touching a level at any point during a long window is far more likely than sitting above it on one specific day.
That distinction is the single most common error in reading a prediction market's price against history. Match the setting here to how the market you are looking at actually resolves — the rules text will say which.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes come from Coinbase's public market data — three years for every coin with a US dollar spot pair. Touch mode uses the daily high and low, terminal mode uses the close. No figure is published unless there are at least 60 independent windows behind it, and where the history is too short the calculator says so instead of estimating.
Common questions
How often does Bitcoin move 20 % in a month?
Run it above and the answer comes with its sample size — the share of thirty-day windows in the last three years in which it happened, and how many windows that was. Historical frequency, not a forecast.
Is a base rate the same as a probability?
No. It is how often something happened in a fixed historical sample. It is a useful outside view precisely because it ignores the current story, and it breaks when the market enters a regime the sample does not contain.
Why is the window capped at 90 days?
Three years of daily closes only contains so many independent windows. Past roughly 90 days, the windows overlap so heavily that the resulting share stops carrying information, so we do not publish one.
Read more
These calculators do arithmetic on numbers you supply. They are not advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to take a position.