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Payout calculator

What the position costs, what it returns, and the probability you need for it to be worth taking.

Each one pays $1 if the event resolves YES.

What the market currently charges, in cents.

The result appears below and the address bar becomes a link you can share.

Result

Profit if it resolves YES
$75.00
Cost now
$25.00
Payout if it resolves YES
$100.00
Loss if it resolves NOThe whole stake
−$25.00
Return on cost
300 %
Break-even probabilityThe price itself
25.0 %

Fees and the spread you cross are not included. Both raise the break-even, and in a thin market the spread costs more than the fee.

Every contract is the same bet in a different suit

A prediction market contract pays exactly $1 if the event happens and exactly nothing if it does not. That is the whole instrument. Your cost is the price you paid, your maximum loss is that same amount, and your maximum gain is the difference between the price and a dollar.

The consequence people miss is that the cheap contract is not the good deal and the expensive one is not the safe deal. A 5¢ contract returns 1,900 % and is wrong 95 % of the time if the market is right. A 95¢ contract returns 5 % and is wrong 5 % of the time. Neither is an edge — they are the same bet priced consistently.

The break-even is the price

The probability you need for a purchase to be worth making is the price itself. Buy at 25¢ and you need the event to happen more than 25 % of the time to come out ahead over many repetitions. That is why the entire research question reduces to one comparison: is your estimate above or below the price?

Fees push the break-even up, and the spread pushes it up further. In a thin market quoted 30¢ / 36¢, crossing the spread costs you six points of implied probability instantly — often several times any explicit fee.

Common questions

What does a prediction market contract pay?

One dollar if the event resolves in your favour, nothing otherwise. Your profit is a dollar minus what you paid, per contract.

What is the break-even probability?

It is the price you paid. A contract bought at 40¢ needs the event to happen more than 40 % of the time to be profitable over repeated bets.

Does this include fees?

No, and that is deliberate. Fee schedules change, and any figure hardcoded here would be a false claim within a quarter. Check the live schedule at the venue, then treat the fee as an addition to the price.

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These calculators do arithmetic on numbers you supply. They are not advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to take a position.