Memecoins

Two numbers do most of the explaining. Holder concentration says how much of the supply a handful of wallets could sell into the order book, and 24-hour volume against market cap says whether there is enough depth for them to do it without collapsing the price.

Memecoins appear in prediction markets more than any other category outside bitcoin, usually as price thresholds on short horizons. They are also where implied probabilities and realised volatility diverge most — which is exactly why the base-rate view is worth having.