NBA Finals
A championship decided over a best-of-seven series — the format that gives the better team the most chances to prove it.
- How often
- Annually, in June, after two months of playoffs.
- Who decides, and on what
- The result of the best-of-seven Finals series, as recorded by the NBA.
Open markets on NBA Finals
Live prediction markets whose question turns on this event. Prices update with the rest of the site.
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Volume $1.9M
11 %
▼ −0.4%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Volume $1.9M
2 %
▲ +0.0%
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Volume $1.6M
5 %
▲ +0.0%
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Volume $1.5M
3 %
▲ +0.2%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Volume $1.5M
5 %
▲ +0.0%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Volume $1.4M
14 %
▼ −1.0%
NBA Finals odds by team
What traders pay for each team on Polymarket and Kalshi right now, and how many of 4 licensed US sportsbooks list it.
As of : for 14 of 14 teams, no Polymarket or Kalshi price is 3 points or more away from the no-vig consensus of licensed US sportsbooks. The median largest gap per team is 0.4 points.
Exchange prices are before the venue's fee. The consensus is the median of at least two sportsbooks' prices with their margin removed across the whole field. With this many outcomes that slightly overstates long shots, because books put more of their margin there. Teams priced below 2 % everywhere are left out of the count.
Compare with the sportsbook consensus
| Team | Polymarket | Books |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 22.5 % | 4 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 14.5 % | 4 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 11.2 % | 4 |
| Boston Celtics | 7.5 % | 4 |
| New York Knicks | 7.5 % | 4 |
| Houston Rockets | 4.9 % | 4 |
| Toronto Raptors | 3.5 % | 4 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 6.3 % | 4 |
| Detroit Pistons | 4.0 % | 4 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 4.5 % | 4 |
| Denver Nuggets | 2.6 % | 4 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 2.9 % | 4 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.3 % | 4 |
| Golden State Warriors | 2.2 % | 4 |
| Indiana Pacers | 1.4 % | 4 |
| Miami Heat | 1.7 % | 4 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 1.1 % | 4 |
| Orlando Magic | 0.5 % | 4 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 0.7 % | 4 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 0.1 % | 4 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 0.9 % | 4 |
| Phoenix Suns | 0.3 % | 4 |
| Washington Wizards | 0.4 % | 4 |
| Utah Jazz | 0.3 % | 4 |
| Chicago Bulls | 0.1 % | 4 |
| LA Clippers | 0.1 % | 4 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 0.1 % | 4 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 0.1 % | 4 |
| Sacramento Kings | 0.1 % | 4 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 0.1 % | 4 |
Data only — we do not link to or recommend any sportsbook.
How accurate have these markets been?
The corpus holds 0 scored markets of this kind so far. We publish a hit rate from 30 — fewer than that rewards luck rather than measuring anything.
Measured on our own corpus of resolved markets, using the price seven days before resolution. A band shows a rate only from 30 cases — fewer than that rewards luck. A historical frequency is not a probability for the next one.
Schedule, venues and live odds
Who plays when and where this week, with the live price of every game.
Seven games favour the favourite
A team that wins 60 % of single games against an opponent wins a best-of-seven series about 71 % of the time. The series format compounds a small edge, which is why NBA title prices concentrate on few teams earlier than in single-elimination events.
It also means one upset moves a series price less than the headline suggests. The question a series contract asks is who gets to four wins, not who won last night.
A season-long position is a series of trades
The contract that pays if a team wins the title trades from the summer before the season to the last game of the Finals. Injuries, trades and playoff seeding all move it long before June.
Holding it to the end is one choice among several. Selling after a strong playoff round is a complete strategy that never requires being right about the Finals.
Common questions
What do NBA Finals odds on a prediction market mean?
The price is the implied chance that a team wins the championship. A team at 25 % costs 25¢ for a contract that pays $1 if it wins the title.
Is the series price the same as the game price?
No. A game contract settles on one night, a series or title contract on who reaches four wins. A team can be the underdog in a road game and still the favourite for the series.
How accurate are these markets?
The accuracy figures on this page are measured from our own corpus of resolved markets, and the page shows the sample size rather than a number when the corpus is too small.