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Updated 1 wk. ago

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Crypto
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3 %

chance

▲ +0.0%24h▼ −0.1%1W
Yes 3¢No 97¢

Total volume

$5.3M

24h vol.

$3.1K

1w vol.

$47K

1m vol.

$261.9K

Liquidity

$83.8K

Bid / Ask

3¢ / 3¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

3¢

Start date

Jan 9, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 242 resolved Polymarket Crypto markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 3.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.9%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
3¢$63
3¢$1,960
3¢$699
3¢$2,749
3¢$426
3¢$3,374
2¢$3,459
2¢$3,135
2¢$9,885
2¢$1,966
Asks (sell)Size
3¢$1,418
3¢$511
3¢$5,605
3¢$705
4¢$2,231
4¢$3,542
4¢$1,170
4¢$4,222
4¢$5
4¢$5,410

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✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 59%Sells 41%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 wk. agoSell3¢185
1 wk. agoSell97¢98
1 wk. agoSell97¢36
1 wk. agoSell97¢7
1 wk. agoSell97¢8
1 wk. agoSell97¢20
1 wk. agoBuy3¢5
1 wk. agoSell97¢10
1 wk. agoBuy3¢161
1 wk. agoBuy97¢161
1 wk. agoSell97¢7
1 wk. agoBuy97¢7
1 wk. agoSell97¢8
1 wk. agoBuy97¢8
1 wk. agoBuy97¢1,184
1 wk. agoSell97¢759
1 wk. agoSell97¢10
1 wk. agoSell97¢41
1 wk. agoSell97¢10
1 wk. agoSell97¢9
1 wk. agoSell97¢10
1 wk. agoSell97¢6
1 wk. agoBuy3¢118
1 wk. agoSell97¢39
1 wk. agoSell97¢100
1 wk. agoBuy3¢80
1 wk. agoBuy97¢7
1 wk. agoBuy3¢7
1 wk. agoBuy97¢8
1 wk. agoBuy3¢8
1 wk. agoSell97¢10
1 wk. agoBuy97¢10
1 wk. agoSell97¢10
1 wk. agoBuy97¢10
1 wk. agoSell97¢9
1 wk. agoBuy97¢9
1 wk. agoSell97¢10
1 wk. agoBuy97¢10
1 wk. agoSell97¢6
1 wk. agoBuy97¢6
1 wk. agoBuy97¢31
1 wk. agoSell97¢10
1 wk. agoSell97¢16
1 wk. agoBuy3¢4
1 wk. agoBuy97¢79
1 wk. agoBuy3¢79
1 wk. agoBuy97¢52
1 wk. agoBuy3¢52
1 wk. agoSell97¢53
1 wk. agoBuy97¢39

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.

Smart money is a Pro+ feature

See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.

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◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

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All Bitcoin data on one pagePrice history, how the coin behaves, and every other open market that names a price level.

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