Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?

From the daily AI research

The market's 16.3% price is directionally consistent with the latest evidence, and the October 15-17 reports of investor discussions around a $1.5 trillion valuation are the main new information arguing against a $2.0T-$2.25T first-day close.[1][2][3] I estimate a 14% YES probability, moving 2.3 percentage points below the market price because the recent valuation reset is specific and material, while retaining meaningful probability for a renewed bid, an IPO before the deadline, and first-day enthusiasm. The largest risks are that the IPO may be delayed or withdrawn and that the rules require an official first-day closing market cap rather than the headline IPO valuation. Confidence is medium because the recent reporting is substantive but relies on sources familiar with the matter, the IPO is not yet publicly priced, and the exchange/source treatment is only partly specified.

Two of the key facts

• Reports published October 15-17 said some current and prospective investors were discussing an Anthropic valuation near $1.5 trillion for a planned November IPO, below earlier expectations near $2 trillion, amid slower sequential revenue growth. [1][2][3][6]
• Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft S-1 in June, but the offering remains dependent on SEC review, market conditions and other factors; the number of shares and IPO price were not set. [4][10]