Tech prediction market odds
Model releases, product launches, antitrust outcomes and who runs which company next. These markets are thin compared to politics, so treat a single large trade as noise until the price holds.
Which company has the best AI model end of October?Google71 %19 outcomes$2.9MLargest Company end of October 2026?NVIDIA85 %9 outcomes$580.3KWhich company has the best AI model end of November?Anthropic46 %21 outcomes$320.3KNext Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?October 2032 %14 outcomes$117.1KLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?SpaceX64 %12 outcomes$6.6MAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap$1.75–$2.0T26 %10 outcomes$1.9MWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?Anthropic49 %15 outcomes$2.6MIn which month will Anthropic IPO?November 202666 %16 outcomes$363.4K#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?Lindsay Clancy23 %46 outcomes$342.8KOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap1.5T+45 %7 outcomes$514.6KLargest Company end of December 2026?NVIDIA68 %8 outcomes$8.6MHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?077 %6 outcomes$365.3K2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?Apple81 %9 outcomes$69.3K#1 Searched Passing on Google 2026?Dolly Parton55 %25 outcomes$138KWhat will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?$1.50–$1.75T43 %8 outcomes$169.7KBest Chinese AI Company end of October?Xiaomi56 %11 outcomes$229.8KWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?<$1T22 %8 outcomes$399KWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?182 %6 outcomes$3.8MLowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?-1.00 to 0.99 ft50 %5 outcomes$11KHow many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?12-1577 %7 outcomes$207.2K
By date & threshold
Events where the outcomes build on each other rather than compete — cumulative odds by deadline or by threshold.
STRC hits $100 by…December 3175 %3 outcomes$520.6KTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?December 31, 202762 %5 outcomes$407.2KNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?December 3198 %5 outcomes$336.9KWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?↑$1.5T85 %10 outcomes$5.3MGPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?December 3192 %3 outcomes$238.2KIndiana enacts data center moratorium by...?December 31, 202827 %4 outcomes$6MTexas enacts data center moratorium by...?December 31, 202828 %4 outcomes$732.3KMissouri enacts data center moratorium by...?December 31, 202826 %4 outcomes$742.3KWho will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?Saudi Arabia22 %10 outcomes$119.2KNext Claude Haiku Model (4.6+): Text Arena Debut?1400+93 %4 outcomes$90.4KNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?1500+92 %5 outcomes$37.3KNuScale announces bankruptcy by...?December 31, 202927 %3 outcomes$278.5KCoreWeave announces bankruptcy by...?December 31, 202928 %3 outcomes$257.9KLouisiana enacts data center moratorium by...?December 31, 202821 %4 outcomes$699.9KIPOs before 2027?Anthropic74 %29 outcomes$5.9MAnthropic announces bankruptcy by...?December 31, 202924 %3 outcomes$1.8MWill Anduril's valuation hit __ by December 31?↑$125B42 %7 outcomes$82.7KWhich companies will be acquired before 2027?Perplexity AI11 %14 outcomes$17.6MWhich cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?Denver, CO94 %19 outcomes$67.8KTop 5 Most Searched People on Google in the US 2026Lindsay Clancy77 %7 outcomes$22.2K
Frequently asked questions
- How reliable are tech prediction markets?
- Less than politics or sports, and the reason is volume: these markets are thin, so a single large trade can move the price several points without new information. Treat a sharp move as noise until it holds for a day.
- What kinds of tech questions get priced?
- Model and product releases, antitrust and regulatory outcomes, funding rounds, and who runs which company next — anything with a public, checkable resolution date.
Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.