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Updated 9 min. ago

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?

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84 %

chance

▼ −0.1%1h▲ +1.6%24h▲ +3.7%1W
Yes 84¢No 16¢

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

5 outcomes

Total volume

$209K

24h vol.

$7.5K

1w vol.

$93.9K

1m vol.

$185.6K

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

83¢ / 85¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

83¢

Start date

Sep 3, 2026

End date

Oct 31, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.6 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
83¢$476
83¢$50
82¢$50
82¢$20
82¢$154
82¢$50
82¢$494
82¢$100
82¢$200
81¢$10
Asks (sell)Size
83¢$140
83¢$21
83¢$50
84¢$59
85¢$10
85¢$100
85¢$31
86¢$119
88¢$74
88¢$890

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 75%Sells 25%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
21 min. agoBuy17¢70
21 min. agoBuy83¢70
23 min. agoBuy17¢100
23 min. agoBuy83¢100
45 min. agoBuy16¢150
45 min. agoBuy84¢17
45 min. agoSell16¢22
45 min. agoSell16¢50
45 min. agoSell16¢13
45 min. agoBuy84¢20
45 min. agoBuy84¢28
46 min. agoBuy85¢32
46 min. agoBuy15¢32
46 min. agoBuy85¢68
46 min. agoBuy15¢11
46 min. agoSell85¢14
46 min. agoBuy15¢20
46 min. agoSell85¢10
46 min. agoBuy15¢13
46 min. agoBuy16¢83
46 min. agoBuy84¢9
46 min. agoSell16¢25
46 min. agoSell16¢50
1 hr. agoBuy84¢100
1 hr. agoSell84¢100
1 hr. agoBuy84¢6
1 hr. agoSell84¢6
1 hr. agoBuy83¢66
1 hr. agoBuy17¢6
1 hr. agoSell83¢10
1 hr. agoSell83¢50
1 hr. agoBuy83¢50
1 hr. agoSell83¢50
1 hr. agoBuy83¢100
1 hr. agoBuy17¢12
1 hr. agoSell83¢14
1 hr. agoSell83¢40
1 hr. agoBuy17¢34
1 hr. agoSell17¢6
1 hr. agoBuy17¢6
2 hr. agoSell83¢8
2 hr. agoBuy83¢8
2 hr. agoBuy17¢6
2 hr. agoBuy83¢6
2 hr. agoSell83¢8
2 hr. agoBuy83¢8
5 hr. agoBuy84¢22
5 hr. agoBuy16¢9
5 hr. agoBuy16¢13
5 hr. agoBuy17¢131

◆ Smart money

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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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