Will there be no Hormuz agreement?

From the daily AI research

The market is correctly anchored near 91.1% YES: recent reporting shows no qualifying U.S.–Iran agreement, persistent restrictions, and unresolved substantive demands, while the strongest reported progress concerns Iran and Oman rather than the rule-defined bilateral instrument. A late announcement remains possible because mediation and prior frameworks exist, and the rules permit an announcement to qualify before implementation is complete, but the deadline is close and the required acceptance language is demanding. I found no reliable evidence warranting a move away from the market price, so the estimate remains 91.1%, with medium confidence because the resolution source and ambiguity provisions leave substantial interpretive risk. The Senate branch is consequential only if an agreement occurs and does not materially reduce the probability of the No Hormuz Agreement outcome.

Two of the key facts

• Recent reporting describes continued blockade enforcement, restricted passage, and no reported qualifying U.S.–Iran agreement; vessel traffic remains materially below pre-conflict levels. [1][3]
• Iran and Oman have reported progress on safe-transit routes, but the reporting distinguishes that arrangement from a full reopening and from a broader U.S.–Iran diplomatic agreement. [4][6][9]