Erste Bank Open: Luca Van Assche vs Learner Tien

Market brief

• Down 34.4 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 35% on Oct 25, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 22 buys, 28 sells; the largest was $11.8K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 2% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (296 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 1 wk. (Nov 3, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 296 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 2.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
• Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.

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