Set Handicap: Mia Pohankova (-1.5) vs Naomi Osaka (+1.5)

Market brief

• Down 2.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 50% on Oct 27, 2026.
• Historically, 14% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (803 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 6 days (Nov 4, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 803 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 13.7% resolved YES. That is 3.9 points more often than their average price of 9.8% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.

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