US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — odds by date
Cumulative probability across 13 deadlines · $6.5M traded · updated 4 days ago
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Each row is a cumulative probability. The prices are currently not consistent enough across steps to break them into per-step chances, so only the cumulative view is shown.
ThresholdChance24hVolume7d
- December 3133 %▼ −2.0%$486K
- November 3042 %▼ −1.0%$574.1K
- November 2250 %▼ −4.0%$82.667
- November 1557 %▲ +3.5%$228.2K
- November 865 %▼ −4.5%$1.1K
- October 3180 %—$3M
- October 2883 %▼ −1.5%$5.3K
- October 2485 %▼ −4.0%$5K
- October 2288 %▼ −4.0%$25.9K
- October 1894 %—$5K
- October 1793 %▼ −2.7%$139.4K
- October 1697 %—$34.8K
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Frequently asked questions
- What do these cumulative odds mean?
- Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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