What do these cumulative odds mean?

Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.

How often do these odds update?

Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.

What price will Bitcoin hit in September? — odds by threshold

Cumulative probability across 5 thresholds · $116.7K traded · updated 2 min. ago

Resolves Oct 1, 2026

These outcomes are independent — they do not compete, and more than one can happen. That is why the percentages here add up to more than 100%.

Falling to

ThresholdChanceIn this step24hVolume7d

Rising to

ThresholdChance24hVolume7d

Frequently asked questions

What do these cumulative odds mean?: Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.
How often do these odds update?: Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.

How to read the odds

Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.

What price will Bitcoin hit in September? — odds by threshold

Falling to

Rising to

Frequently asked questions

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