What do these cumulative odds mean?

Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.

How often do these odds update?

Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? — odds by threshold

Cumulative probability across 4 thresholds · $121.7K traded · updated 19 hr. ago

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Each row is a cumulative probability. The prices are currently not consistent enough across steps to break them into per-step chances, so only the cumulative view is shown.

ThresholdChance24hVolume7d

Frequently asked questions

What do these cumulative odds mean?: Each row is the market's implied chance of that outcome happening at or before that point. Because every step includes the ones before it, the numbers only ever go down as the bar gets harder to clear.
How often do these odds update?: Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.

How to read the odds

Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Nothing on Market Guy is financial advice — it is research tooling to help you think, not a signal to trade.

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? — odds by threshold

Frequently asked questions

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