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Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Aug 1, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

1Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?100¢▲ +97.3%3Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?99¢▲ +94.3%4Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?0¢▼ −90.5%5Mubadala Citi DC Open: Marcos Giron vs Cruz HewittMubadala Citi DC Open: Marcos Giron vs Cruz Hewitt0¢▼ −89.5%6Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?100¢▲ +85.4%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

Will Liquid Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?Will Liquid Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?-83 pp gapIran leadership change by August 31?Iran leadership change by August 31?-66 pp gapCleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsCleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds+61 pp gapWill Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?-22 pp gap

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?26¢NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?6¢Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?21¢Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?12¢

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