Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Aug 7, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026?100¢▲ +98.9%3Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?100¢▲ +97.3%4Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of August 3 2026?100¢▲ +96.4%5Golfers to win a PGA Tour Major before 2030 — Ludvig Aberg50¢▼ −95.0%6
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?0¢▼ −90.5%
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026?100¢▲ +98.9%3Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?100¢▲ +97.3%4Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 Week of August 3 2026?100¢▲ +96.4%5Golfers to win a PGA Tour Major before 2030 — Ludvig Aberg50¢▼ −95.0%6Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?0¢▼ −90.5%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra EalaMarket 0%AI 87%-87 pp gap
Iran leadership change by August 31?Market 3%AI 72%-69 pp gap
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Market 59%AI 91%-33 pp gap
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?Market 0%AI 23%-23 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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