Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Sep 4, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1Who will be the next Secretary of the Army? — Brian Mast5¢▼ −85.0%2
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 4?78¢▲ +69.0%3
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?22¢▼ −67.5%4
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners100¢▲ +63.4%5Will "Onslaught" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?38¢▼ −59.8%6
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7¢▼ −56.5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 4?78¢▲ +69.0%3Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?22¢▼ −67.5%4Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners100¢▲ +63.4%5Will "Onslaught" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?38¢▼ −59.8%6Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7¢▼ −56.5%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Market 87%AI 31%+56 pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Market 59%AI 92%-34 pp gap
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?Market 24%AI 52%-28 pp gap
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?Market 56%AI 35%+21 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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