Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Sep 14, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1Will Chicago Bears score the most points in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season?99¢▲ +93.9%2Who will host the 2031 Pro Football Championship? — New England4¢▼ −89.0%3Will the announcers say "Late Hit" during the Cowboys vs Giants game?100¢▲ +88.4%4
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?97¢▲ +84.8%5Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?2¢▼ −81.6%6Will Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?92¢▲ +80.0%
Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?97¢▲ +84.8%5Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?2¢▼ −81.6%6Will Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?92¢▲ +80.0%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?Market 2%AI 73%-71 pp gap
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Market 97%AI 36%+61 pp gap
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Market 80%AI 57%+23 pp gapWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Market 21%AI 43%-22 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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