College Football Playoff
A committee picks the field, then a bracket decides it — the price has to forecast the selection before it can forecast the games.
- How often
- Annually: the field is set in early December, the title game is played in January.
- Who decides, and on what
- The selection committee's final ranking sets the field; the games decide the champion, as recorded by the College Football Playoff.
Open markets on College Football Playoff
Live prediction markets whose question turns on this event. Prices update with the rest of the site.
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
Volume $160.3K
30 %
▲ +0.0%
Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
Volume $137K
10 %
▲ +0.0%
Will Oregon Ducks win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
Volume $126.3K
2 %
▼ −0.1%
Will Florida Gators win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
Volume $116.2K
1 %
▲ +0.0%
Will Alabama Crimson Tide win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
Volume $103.5K
11 %
▼ −0.1%
Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
Volume $101.6K
8 %
▼ −0.9%
College Football Playoff odds by team
What traders pay for each team on Polymarket and Kalshi right now, and how many of 4 licensed US sportsbooks list it.
As of : for 6 of 7 teams, no Polymarket or Kalshi price is 3 points or more away from the no-vig consensus of licensed US sportsbooks. The median largest gap per team is 1.1 points.
Exchange prices are before the venue's fee. The consensus is the median of at least two sportsbooks' prices with their margin removed across the whole field. With this many outcomes that slightly overstates long shots, because books put more of their margin there. Teams priced below 2 % everywhere are left out of the count.
Compare with the sportsbook consensus
| Team | Polymarket | Books |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia Bulldogs | 29.5 % | 4 |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 18.5 % | 4 |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 11.4 % | 4 |
| Miami Hurricanes | 9.8 % | 4 |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 6.8 % | 4 |
| Texas Longhorns | 7.8 % | 4 |
| LSU Tigers | 2.5 % | 4 |
| Utah Utes | – | 4 |
| Tennessee Volunteers | – | 4 |
| UCLA Bruins | – | 4 |
| Ole Miss Rebels | – | 4 |
| Oregon Ducks | 1.8 % | 4 |
| USC Trojans | 1.1 % | 4 |
| Wake Forest Demon Deacons | – | 4 |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 0.9 % | 4 |
| Florida Gators | 0.8 % | 1 |
| Kentucky Wildcats | – | 4 |
| South Carolina Gamecocks | – | 4 |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | – | 4 |
| BYU Cougars | – | 4 |
| Missouri Tigers | – | 4 |
| Boise State Broncos | – | 4 |
| Houston Cougars | – | 4 |
| SMU Mustangs | – | 4 |
| Arizona Wildcats | – | 4 |
| Baylor Bears | – | 4 |
| Louisville Cardinals | – | 4 |
| New Mexico Lobos | – | 4 |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 0.1 % | 3 |
| Wisconsin Badgers | – | 3 |
| Northwestern Wildcats | – | 2 |
| Duke Blue Devils | – | 4 |
10 more teams further down the field are not shown.
Data only — we do not link to or recommend any sportsbook.
How accurate have these markets been?
The corpus holds 0 scored markets of this kind so far. We publish a hit rate from 30 — fewer than that rewards luck rather than measuring anything.
Measured on our own corpus of resolved markets, using the price seven days before resolution. A band shows a rate only from 30 cases — fewer than that rewards luck. A historical frequency is not a probability for the next one.
Schedule, venues and live odds
Who plays when and where this week, with the live price of every game.
Two forecasts in one price
Before December a team's title price answers two separate questions: will the committee put it in the field, and will it then win three or four games. A team on the bubble can lose most of its price on selection day without playing.
The exchanges list more than the title: contracts on seeds and on who reaches a given round sit next to the champion market. Reading them together shows how much of a title price is the selection and how much is the bracket.
A short season makes every loss expensive
Twelve regular-season games leave little room: one loss in November can move a title price more than a month of results in a longer league. Prices jump on single Saturdays rather than drift.
The contract trades the whole time. Selling after a big win and before the committee's next ranking is a complete trade — it does not need the team to win the title.
Common questions
When is the College Football Playoff field decided?
The selection committee publishes weekly rankings from November and the final field in early December, after the conference championship games. Title prices react to each ranking.
Why did a team's price fall without a loss?
Because the path changed. A lower seed, a harder part of the bracket or a rival's win can all cut a title price while the team itself did nothing wrong.
How accurate are these markets?
The accuracy figures on this page are measured from our own corpus of resolved markets, and the page shows the sample size rather than a number when the corpus is too small.