Super Bowl
The one sports event where a prediction market price and a sportsbook line are read side by side by the same audience — and where the difference between them is easiest to see.
- How often
- Annually, in February.
- Who decides, and on what
- The result of the game, as recorded by the NFL.
Open markets on Super Bowl
Live prediction markets whose question turns on this event. Prices update with the rest of the site.
No open market on this event right now. That is a statement about the calendar, not about the event — these come back.
Browse live oddsHow accurate have these markets been?
The corpus holds 0 scored markets of this kind so far. We publish a hit rate from 30 — fewer than that rewards luck rather than measuring anything.
Measured on our own corpus of resolved markets, using the price seven days before resolution. A band shows a rate only from 30 cases — fewer than that rewards luck. A historical frequency is not a probability for the next one.
Schedule, venues and live odds
Who plays when and where this week, with the live price of every game.
An exchange price is not a line
A sportsbook builds its margin into the number, so the implied probabilities of every team add up to well over 100 %. An exchange quotes prices that sum to roughly 100 % and charges its fee separately. Comparing the two directly, without removing the overround, makes the book look better than it is.
For a market this liquid the difference is usually small in percentage terms and consistent in direction. It is the clearest available illustration of where a book's margin actually sits.
A season-long position is a series of trades
The contract that pays if a team wins the Super Bowl trades all season. Buying in September and selling in January after a good run is a complete strategy that never requires being right about the final — and it is what most of the volume on these markets is doing.
Treating the contract as a ticket you hold to February is the expensive default. It is a position, and it is liquid enough to manage like one.
Common questions
Are Super Bowl odds better on a prediction market than a sportsbook?
The implied probability is usually closer to honest because it does not carry an overround. Whether your total cost is lower depends on the fee and the spread — on a market this liquid, the spread is usually tight.
Can I sell before the game?
Yes. A futures contract trades all season, and selling into a price rise after a good run is a complete strategy that never requires being right about the final result.
How accurate are these markets?
The accuracy figures on this page are measured from our own corpus of resolved markets, and the page shows the sample size rather than a number when the corpus is too small.