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Updated 2 min. ago

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

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14 %

chance

▲ +1.0%24h▲ +3.0%1W
Yes 14¢No 87¢

Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?

4 outcomes

Total volume

$4.8M

24h vol.

$26K

1w vol.

$2.5M

1m vol.

$4.8M

Liquidity

$385.9K

Bid / Ask

13¢ / 14¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

14¢

Start date

Sep 29, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2028

ends in 1 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
13¢$2,469
12¢$235,610
11¢$407,276
10¢$41,083
9¢$619
8¢$505
7¢$934
6¢$1,075
5¢$101,280
4¢$101,708
Asks (sell)Size
14¢$68,153
15¢$94,821
16¢$87,898
18¢$5,565
19¢$305
20¢$205
23¢$5
25¢$80
26¢$10
27¢$35,000

Snapshot from cache

The AI's estimate

The AI and the market agree
Market
14%
AI
15%

sonar · analysed 5 days ago

From the daily AI research

The market is about a statewide enactment, not the numerous local Indiana moratoria that have recently passed. The strongest current evidence is that the 2026 legislative session ended without statewide action, while the next major opportunity is the 2027 General Assembly; recent developments through October 14 add local pressure but no qualifying statewide measure. Starting from the 16.5% market price, I move the estimate down 2 percentage points because the 2026 opportunity has passed without enactment and no current statewide bill or official enactment is identified; the historical 15%-35% calibration, with 21.8% YES outcomes versus a 23.2% average price, is directionally consistent with a modestly lower estimate. Confidence is medium because the deadline leaves a full legislative session and late enactment can qualify, but the resolution source is not exclusive and the statewide-versus-local distinction is decisive.

Two of the key facts

  • Indiana lawmakers declined to enact a statewide data center moratorium during the 2026 legislative session; the 2027 General Assembly is identified as the next major opportunity. [8]
  • Indianapolis adopted a local moratorium through December 31, 2027, with the City-County Council approving it in August and the Metropolitan Development Commission giving final approval on August 19; it does not apply statewide. [1][5][6]

Resolution risk: medium — read the rules before relying on the title.

Bull and bear case, the remaining facts and the full resolution analysis come with a plan.

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Recent trades (50)

Buys 7%Sells 93%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
51 min. agoBuy87¢663
51 min. agoBuy13¢263
51 min. agoSell87¢200
51 min. agoBuy13¢200
4 hr. agoSell87¢4,600
4 hr. agoBuy87¢162
4 hr. agoBuy87¢1,515
4 hr. agoSell13¢889
4 hr. agoSell13¢100
4 hr. agoSell13¢372
4 hr. agoSell13¢184
4 hr. agoSell13¢150
4 hr. agoSell13¢1,228
4 hr. agoBuy14¢1,515
4 hr. agoSell14¢1,477
4 hr. agoBuy87¢38
5 hr. agoSell87¢5,799
5 hr. agoSell13¢5,799
9 hr. agoSell87¢1,031
9 hr. agoSell13¢1,031
20 hr. agoSell87¢12,299
20 hr. agoSell13¢12,299
23 hr. agoSell87¢49
23 hr. agoSell13¢49
1 day agoSell87¢0
1 day agoSell13¢0
1 day agoSell12¢68
1 day agoSell88¢68
1 day agoSell87¢0
1 day agoSell13¢0
1 day agoBuy88¢8
1 day agoSell88¢8
1 day agoSell87¢0
1 day agoSell13¢0
1 day agoBuy88¢10
1 day agoSell88¢10
1 day agoSell87¢3,866
1 day agoSell13¢3,866
2 days agoSell12¢1
2 days agoSell88¢1
2 days agoSell87¢0
2 days agoSell13¢0
2 days agoSell12¢21
2 days agoSell88¢21
2 days agoBuy88¢2
2 days agoSell88¢2
2 days agoSell87¢0
2 days agoSell13¢0
2 days agoBuy88¢8
2 days agoSell88¢8

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