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Updated 4 days ago
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 2 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
5 %
chance
Ballon d'Or Top 2 Finish 2026
30 outcomes- Harry Kane94 %
- Kylian Mbappé55 %
- Michael Olise47 %
- Lamine Yamal43 %
- Dayot Upamecano30 %
- Ferran Torres8 %
- Lionel Messi5 %
- Julián Quiñones4 %
- Fabian Ruiz4 %
- Marquinhos3 %
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia3 %
- Ousmane Dembélé2 %
- Rodri2 %
- João Neves2 %
- Pau Cubarsi1 %
- Marc Cucurella1 %
- Vinícius Júnior1 %
- William Saliba1 %
- Luis Diaz1 %
- Sadio Mané1 %
- Achraf Hakimi1 %
- Gabriel Magalhães1 %
- Declan Rice1 %
- Vitinha1 %
- Erling Haaland1 %
- Nuno Mendes1 %
- Bruno Fernandes0 %
- Jude Bellingham0 %
- Lautaro Martinez0 %
- Willian Pacho0 %
Total volume
$2.3K
24h vol.
$397.479
1w vol.
$2.3K
1m vol.
$2.3K
Liquidity
$399.029
Bid / Ask
3¢ / 8¢
Spread 5¢
Last trade
4¢
Start date
Oct 14, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 669 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 13.8% resolved YES. That is 3.9 points more often than their average price of 9.8% implied — prices in this range have tended to run low.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 14¢Snapshot from cache
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