Erste Bank Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Brandon Nakashima

Market brief

• Up 15.0 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 71% on Oct 28, 2026.
• Last 50 trades: 34 buys, 16 sells; the largest was $520 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 49% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (9,309 cases).
• Scheduled to end in 6 days (Nov 3, 2026).

How reliable is this price range?

Of 9,309 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.5% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

• Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
• Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
• Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.

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