Updated 4 days ago
Will Duke reach the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four?
35 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 7.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 69% on Nov 4, 2026.
- Last 14 trades: 0 buys, 14 sells; the largest was $133 (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 49% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (10,776 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 5 mo. (Mar 29, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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NCAA Tournament 2027: Team to advance to the Final Four
14 outcomesUnderstand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$643.28
24h vol.
$643.28
Liquidity
$441.537
End date
Mar 29, 2027
ends in 5 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
Bid / Ask
34¢ / 36¢
Spread 2¢
Last trade
34¢
Start date
Nov 3, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (14)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days ago | Sell | 34¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 38¢ | 55 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 38¢ | 100 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 38¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 38¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 38¢ | 40 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 42¢ | 230 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 39¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 38¢ | 24 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 38¢ | 40 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 6 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 42¢ | 6 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 40¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 42¢ | 40 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team qualifies for the Final Four (national semifinals) of the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to reach the Final Four (e.g., it is eliminated or not selected for the tournament), this market will resolve to "No". If the 2027 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament is cancelled, or the Final Four teams are not determined by April 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Event:
- NCAA Tournament 2027: Team to advance to the Final Four
- Resolution source:
- https://www.ncaa.com
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