Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Aug 11, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?100¢▲ +97.3%3
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?0¢▼ −90.5%4
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?100¢▲ +85.4%5
Will MOUZ Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?100¢▲ +84.9%6
National Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Tallon Griekspoor0¢▼ −84.5%
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?100¢▲ +97.3%3Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?0¢▼ −90.5%4Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?100¢▲ +85.4%5Will MOUZ Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?100¢▲ +84.9%6National Bank Open: Alexander Zverev vs Tallon Griekspoor0¢▼ −84.5%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Market 32%AI 62%-30 pp gap
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Market 26%AI 46%-20 pp gap
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?Market 2%AI 18%-16 pp gapWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Market 23%AI 17%+6 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
New to prediction markets? Start with the beginner guides. Looking for a full field rather than a single market? Browse live odds by topic.