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Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Aug 13, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

1Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?100¢▲ +98.4%3Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?100¢▲ +97.3%4Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?100¢▲ +95.8%5Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 14?97¢▲ +93.6%6Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?100¢▲ +92.5%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?+82 pp gapWill Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?-23 pp gapUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?+16 pp gapWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?-8 pp gap

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?36¢Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?9¢Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?13¢Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?13¢

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