Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Aug 17, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?100¢▲ +97.3%3

Hamburg: Max Hans Rehberg vs Saba Purtseladze0¢▼ −94.0%4

Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?0¢▼ −90.5%5

Will "Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?94¢▲ +89.0%6

Will "Tires: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?6¢▼ −87.0%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Market 100%AI 18%+82 pp gap

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Market 79%AI 14%+65 pp gap

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?Market 5%AI 35%-30 pp gap

Will Team Falcons Win The International 2026?Market 14%AI 34%-20 pp gap

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?33¢Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?14¢

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?9¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?14¢

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