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Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Aug 31, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

1Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?92¢▲ +74.5%2Will AD Cali vs. CA Bucaramanga end in a draw?Will AD Cali vs. CA Bucaramanga end in a draw?100¢▲ +70.0%3Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 25-31?Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 25-31?89¢▲ +65.0%4US Open ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian MannarinoUS Open ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino10¢▼ −62.0%5Will BetBoom Make a Roster Change before September?Will BetBoom Make a Roster Change before September?18¢▼ −61.0%6Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7¢▼ −56.5%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?-56 pp gapWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?-45 pp gapWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?-21 pp gapWill Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?-18 pp gap

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?35¢Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?7¢Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?14¢US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?22¢

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