Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Sep 3, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?95¢▲ +86.2%2Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?1¢▼ −81.2%3
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026?95¢▲ +71.5%4
Will the next Mythos-Class model debut as #1? (Text Arena)99¢▲ +63.7%5Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?79¢▲ +62.0%6
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays100¢▲ +57.5%
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?95¢▲ +86.2%2Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?1¢▼ −81.2%3Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 11, 2026?95¢▲ +71.5%4Will the next Mythos-Class model debut as #1? (Text Arena)99¢▲ +63.7%5Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?79¢▲ +62.0%6New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays100¢▲ +57.5%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?Market 16%AI 93%-77 pp gap
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Market 85%AI 31%+54 pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Market 48%AI 92%-45 pp gap
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Market 60%AI 42%+18 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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