Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Sep 11, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?1¢▼ −88.2%2When will Dabo Swinney leave Clemson? — Before Dec 1, 20269¢▼ −86.0%3Will the announcers say "Intercept" or "Intercepted" during the 49ers vs Rams game?9¢▼ −76.0%4
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $183 Week of September 7 2026?100¢▲ +74.5%5
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of September 7 2026?81¢▲ +74.0%6
Belgium vs. Germany/South Korea0¢▼ −68.5%
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?1¢▼ −88.2%2When will Dabo Swinney leave Clemson? — Before Dec 1, 20269¢▼ −86.0%3Will the announcers say "Intercept" or "Intercepted" during the 49ers vs Rams game?9¢▼ −76.0%4Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $183 Week of September 7 2026?100¢▲ +74.5%5Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of September 7 2026?81¢▲ +74.0%6Belgium vs. Germany/South Korea0¢▼ −68.5%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Market 97%AI 36%+61 pp gap
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Market 9%AI 34%-25 pp gap
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?Market 60%AI 41%+19 pp gap
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Market 10%AI 24%-14 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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