Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Sep 12, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1
Next Kimi K model released by September 15, 2026?96¢▲ +92.5%2
Will "The Gentlemen: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?85¢▲ +79.9%3
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?1¢▼ −69.7%4
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?90¢▲ +66.5%5Will "Runner" score at least 66 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?96¢▲ +64.5%6Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?93¢▲ +64.0%
Next Kimi K model released by September 15, 2026?96¢▲ +92.5%2Will "The Gentlemen: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?85¢▲ +79.9%3Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?1¢▼ −69.7%4Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix?90¢▲ +66.5%5Will "Runner" score at least 66 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?96¢▲ +64.5%6Will "Practical Magic 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?93¢▲ +64.0%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Market 98%AI 36%+62 pp gap
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?Market 55%AI 86%-32 pp gap
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND PlayoffsMarket 38%AI 67%-29 pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Market 21%AI 43%-22 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
New to prediction markets? Start with the beginner guides. Looking for a full field rather than a single market? Browse live odds by topic.