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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?

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0 %

chance

▼ −0.4%1h▼ −72.0%24h▼ −79.5%1W
Yes 0¢No 100¢

How surprising was this result?

Seven days before the end, the market priced YES at 69%.

Among 1,762 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced in the same range, a result like this one happened 31% of the time — roughly one in 3.

Prediction market accuracy, measured

Total volume

$94.1K

24h vol.

$21.9K

1w vol.

$56.9K

1m vol.

$94.1K

Liquidity

$7.8K

Last trade

0¢

Start date

Aug 13, 2026

Orderbook

Bids (buy)Size

No orders

Asks (sell)Size
0¢$250
0¢$500
1¢$100
1¢$500
1¢$910
1¢$2,035
2¢$38
2¢$135
3¢$30
5¢$100

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 74%Sells 26%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoSell100¢16
1 mo. agoSell0¢16
1 mo. agoBuy100¢10
1 mo. agoBuy0¢10
1 mo. agoBuy100¢102
1 mo. agoBuy0¢92
1 mo. agoBuy0¢10
1 mo. agoSell99¢92
1 mo. agoSell1¢92
1 mo. agoSell98¢11
1 mo. agoSell3¢11
1 mo. agoBuy100¢4,960
1 mo. agoSell100¢2,629
1 mo. agoBuy0¢1,750
1 mo. agoBuy0¢581
1 mo. agoBuy100¢10
1 mo. agoBuy0¢10
1 mo. agoBuy100¢10
1 mo. agoBuy0¢10
1 mo. agoBuy100¢5
1 mo. agoBuy0¢5
1 mo. agoBuy100¢10
1 mo. agoBuy0¢10
1 mo. agoBuy100¢10
1 mo. agoBuy0¢10
1 mo. agoBuy100¢100
1 mo. agoBuy0¢100
1 mo. agoBuy100¢10
1 mo. agoBuy0¢10
1 mo. agoBuy100¢10
1 mo. agoBuy0¢10
1 mo. agoBuy100¢10
1 mo. agoBuy0¢10
1 mo. agoBuy100¢10
1 mo. agoBuy0¢10
1 mo. agoBuy100¢50
1 mo. agoBuy0¢50
1 mo. agoBuy100¢10
1 mo. agoBuy0¢10
1 mo. agoBuy100¢5
1 mo. agoBuy0¢5
1 mo. agoSell98¢0
1 mo. agoSell2¢0
1 mo. agoSell98¢0
1 mo. agoSell2¢0
1 mo. agoSell98¢0
1 mo. agoSell2¢0
1 mo. agoSell98¢0
1 mo. agoSell2¢0
1 mo. agoSell98¢0

◆ Smart money

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Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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