Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Sep 21, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%2Will Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?89¢▲ +81.5%3Will Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?92¢▲ +80.0%4Will the announcers say "Inch" or "Inches" during the Colts vs Chiefs game?99¢▲ +77.6%5Will Anna Leigh Waters reach the Semifinals of the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?82¢▲ +74.0%6Will Parris Todd qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?82¢▲ +73.5%
Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Market 82%AI 28%+54 pp gap
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Market 60%AI 23%+37 pp gap
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Market 82%AI 59%+23 pp gapWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?Market 1%AI 15%-13 pp gap
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Market 60%AI 23%+37 pp gapWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Market 82%AI 59%+23 pp gapWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?Market 1%AI 15%-13 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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